Planning- Project Management Plan
- Change Management Plan
- Project Roadmap
- Scope Management Plan
- Requirements Management Plan
- Requirements Documentation
- Requirements raceability Matrix
- Project Scope Statement
- Work Breakdown Structure
- WBS Dictionary
- Schedule Management Plan
- Activity list
- Activity attributes
- Milestone list
- Network diagram
- Duration estimates
- Duration estimates worksheet
- Project schedule
- Cost management plan
- Cost estimates
- Cost estimating worksheet
- Cost baseline
- Quality management plan
- Quality metrics
- Responsibility assignment matrix (RAM)
- Resource management plan
- Team charter
- Resource requirements
- Resource breakdown structure
- Communications management plan
- Risk management plan
- Risk register
- Risk report
- Probability and impact assessment
- Probability and impact matrix
- Risk data sheet
- Procurement management plan
- Procurement strategy
- Source selection criteria
- Stakeholder engagement plan
Probability and impact assessment
Definitions for probability and impact are defined in the risk management plan. If your project does not have a risk management plan, you can develop a probability and impact assessment to record definitions for the likelihood of events occurring (probability), and the impact on the various project objectives if they do occur. It also has a key to assign an overall risk rating based on the probability and impact scores.
The probability and impact assessment can receive information from:
- Risk management plan
- Risk register
It provides information to the risk register.
The probability and impact assessment is a tool used in 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis in the PMBOK® Guide – Sixth Edition. It is developed once and does not usually change.
Tailoring tips
Consider the following tips to help tailor the probability and impact matrix to meet your needs:
- On smaller projects the impacts may be grouped together without distinguishing impact by objective.
- The matrix can be 3 × 3 for a small project, 5 × 5 for a medium project, and 10 × 10 for a complex or large project.
- To indicate the relative criticality of various objectives (usually scope, schedule, cost, and quality), you can include a tighter range of thresholds between For example, if cost is a critical factor, consider a very low impact as a 2 percent variance, a low variance as a 4 percent impact, a medium variance as a 6 percent variance, a high variance as 8 percent, and a very high variance as a 10 per- cent variance. If the cost is more relaxed you might have a loose range such as: very low impact as a 5 percent variance, a low variance as a 10 percent impact, a medium variance as a 15 percent vari- ance, a high variance as 20 percent, and a very high variance as a 25 percent variance.
- If there are other objectives that are important to the project, such as stakeholder satisfaction, you can incorporate them. Some organizations combine scope and quality into one objective.
- You can make the assessment more robust by including urgency information to indicate if a risk is imminent or in the distant future.
Alignment
The probability and impact assessment should be aligned and consistent with the following documents:
- Risk management plan
- Risk register
- Probability and impact matrix
- Stakeholder register
Elements of a Probability impact assessment
| Document element | Description | |
| Scope impact | Very High | The product does not meet the objectives and is effectively useless |
| High | The product is deficient in multiple essential requirements | |
| Medium | The product is deficient in one major requirement or multiple minor requirements | |
| Low | The product is deficient in a few minor requirements | |
| Very Low | Minimal deviation from requirements | |
| Quality impact | Very High | Performance is significantly below objectives and is effectively useless |
| High | Major aspects of performance do not meet requirements | |
| Medium | At least one performance requirement is significantly deficient | |
| Low | There is minor deviation in performance | |
| Very Low | There is minimal deviation in performance | |
| Scope impact | Very High | The product does not meet the objectives and is effectively useless |
| High | The product is deficient in multiple essential requirements | |
| Medium | The product is deficient in one major requirement or multiple minor requirements | |
| Low | The product is deficient in a few minor requirements | |
| Very Low | Minimal deviation from requirements | |
| Quality impact | Very High | Performance is significantly below objectives and is effectively useless |
| High | Major aspects of performance do not meet requirements | |
| Medium | At least one performance requirement is significantly deficient | |
| Low | There is minor deviation in performance | |
| Very Low | There is minimal deviation in performance | |
| Schedule impact | Very High | Greater than 20 percent overall schedule increase |
| High | Between 10 percent and 20 percent overall schedule increase | |
| Medium | Between 5 percent and 10 percent overall schedule increase | |
| Low | Noncritical paths have used all their float, or overall schedule increase of 1 to 5 percent | |
| Very Low | Slippage on noncritical paths but float remains | |
| Cost impact | Very High | Cost increase of greater than 20 percent |
| High | Cost increase of 10 to 20 percent | |
| Medium | Cost increase of 5 to 10 percent | |
| Low | Cost increase that requires use of all contingency funds | |
| Very Low | Cost increase that requires use of some contingency but some contingency funds remain | |
| Probability | Very High | The event will most likely occur: 80 percent or greater probability |
| High | The event will probably occur: 61 to 80 percent probability | |
| Medium | The event is likely to occur: 41 to 60 percent probability | |
| Low | The event may occur: 21 to 40 percent probability | |
| Very Low | The event is unlikely to occur: 1 to 20 percent probability | |
| Risk rating | High | Any event with a probability of medium or above and a very high impact on any objective Any event with a probability of high or above and a high impact on any objective Any event with a probability of very high and a medium impact on any objective Any event that scores a medium on more than two objectives |
| Medium | Any event with a probability of very low and a high or above impact on any objective Any event with a probability of low and a medium or above impact on any objective Any event with a probability of medium and a low to high impact on any objective Any event with a probability of high and a very low to medium impact on any objective Any event with a probability of very high and a low or very low impact on any objective Any event with a probability of very low and a medium impact on more than two objectives |
|
| Low | Any event with a probability of medium and a very low impact on any objective Any event with a probability of low and a low or very low impact on any objective Any event with a probability of very low and a medium or less impact on any objective |
